Monday, May 9, 2016

Re: (no subject)

To: Martin Johnson and crew on SY "Pau Hana"
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789, info@commandersweather.com 
Route: Opua, New Zealand to Tubuai, Austral Islands 
Last position: 37 01S/168 48W at 1800utc Mon, May 9, 2016 
Prepared: 2100utc Mon, May 9, 2016 

Martin, thought it was best to send this update because of the important changes in your forecast.

Summary: 

1) cold front is currently stretching from SE of the S Cook islands to near 40S/175W
  a) the winds in advance of this front are bringing you the good WNW winds
  b) latest forecast models show the cold front moving across you during the next 24 hours with some W to SW winds, showers and maybe a few squalls
  c) then high pressure is expected to fill in behind the front and bring you back into light air during Wednesday, utc time
  d) finally, on Thursday the next cold front pushes E across NZ and begins to move the high pressure and the light winds to the E
  e) allowing NW winds to fill in along your route 
2) took a look at the longer range forecast to help determine your best route to Tubuai
  a) if you head on a rhumbline course toward Tubuai from your 1800utc position on the 12th, think you will move into light winds for a number of days as you cross the high almost lengthwise that is centered near 32S/154W by 00utc on the 14th
  b) think it will be best to head on an ENE course around 1800utc on the 12th to stay in the NW-WNW winds longer


Routing:

1) slowed you down to 4kts during the next 48 hours as the cold front crosses you then light winds move in behind the front, expect you will be motoring
  a) with the changes in the forecast weather pattern, recommend you stay on an E course until you start to get into good wind again, probably on the 12th,   when you should see winds build out of the NW
  b) at that time, recommend you head on an ENE course as it looks like winds could continue out of the NW into the 15th, as you move closer to the center of high pressure that you should have to cross to get to Tubuai
  c) once you are back in the NW winds, routed you averaging 5kts again


Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, 

time is UTC

Tue, May 10
00: 260-280/10-15 cold front pushing across your route
06: 220-240/10-18
12: 200-220/5-10
18: bcmg light/variable nr 37S/166 30W – high pressure filling in
Weather…Increasing clouds with a better chance of showers/squalls.  Some gusts to 30+kts in any stronger squalls.
Seas easing to 4-5ft, SW swell 

Wed, May 11
00: light/variable
06: light/variable
12: light/variable 
18: 330-350/5-10 nr 37S/164 10W
Weather…Variably cloudy, few showers and squalls 
Seas down to 3-5ft, some W-SW swell

Thu, May 12
00: 330-350/6-13
06: 320-340/10-15
12: 320-340/12-18
18: 320-340/15-20 nr 37S/161 30W – shift onto ENE course
Weather…Variably cloudy, chance of a few showers and squalls 
Seas quickly building to 5-7ft, becoming choppy in some SW swell and NW windwave

Fri, May 13
00: 310-330/15-20
06: 310-330/14-20
12: 300-320/12-18
18: 300-320/12-20 nr 36N/159W
Weather…Variably cloudy, chance of a few showers and squalls 
Seas 5-7ft, choppy in some SW swell and NW windwave

Sat, May 14
06: 290-310/12-18
18: 280-300/10-15 nr 34 50S/156 40W
Weather…Variably to partly cloudy
Seas down to 4-6ft, some SW-W swell

Sun, May 15
06: 280-300/10-15
18: 290-310/8-13 nr 33 50S/154 50W
Weather…Variably to partly cloudy
Seas down to 3-5 ft, some SW-W swell

Best regards,
Brynn Campbell



Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

On Mon, May 9, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Pau Hana <WDH6740@sailmail.com> wrote:
[pos]37 01s 168 48w
[sp]5.5 kts
[h]85 T
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